A History Lesson: Presidential Voting Results 1960-2020
In the past 64 years there have been 16 presidential elections. An analysis of their results is interesting. 8 of the 16 have been won by Dems, the other 8 by Reps. There have been a number (1/2) of very close elections (4% difference), given the popular vote. 1960, 68, 76, 2000, 04, 12, 16 and 20, have been close. The closest election was in 2000, when Bush won by 1/10 of a percentage point of the vote, 1960 was also extremely close. Interestingly, 4 of the close elections were won by Democrats and 4 by Republicans. We are said to be a divided country and based on these results, that is truer today than ever. In the past 64 years, 3 of the 8 closest elections have been the very last 3! There have also been some blowout elections, by 10% or more. Only 4 elections were blowouts, 1964, 72, 80 and 84. 3 of those elections have been won by Republicans. There has not been a blowout election in 40 years. We have become more evenly divided politically.
A very obvious conclusion is that Donald Trump is the only man to ever lose the popular vote and win the presidency! In 2016 he lost the vote to Hillary Clinton by 2%. Not only that, but he is the only man to have run and lose the popular vote twice! In 2020 he lost it to Joe Biden by 4%. Let’s hope this losing streak continues.
While the popular vote has been very close in ½ of our elections, not so much for the Electoral College vote. In fact, only in 2000, was it really close, a difference of 2 percentage points. The Electoral College vote was almost exactly the same in the past 2 elections (2 vote difference). Of course, the parties split those elections. This closeness has not happened before in back-to-back elections. And as many of us suspected, the Electoral College vote does NOT reflect the popular vote for most elections, though it tends to reflect more accurately blowout elections.
The percentage of registered voters who actually have voted during the past 64 years has ranged from a low of 52% in 1996 to a high of 67% in 2020. Interestingly, Democrats won both of those races. If we use 60% and more of registered voters voting, Democrats have won 4 races and Republicans 2 races. Maybe the common belief that Dems win when the turnout is higher, is true for presidential elections.
All in all, we cannot predict the results of the 2024 election, except to say it will probably be a close one for the popular vote, though maybe not the Electoral College vote. Hopefully, it is a large turnout election and that the Dems prevail!