Albuquerque Journal Poll Reveals Voters Concerns On Major Issues
Causes Of Crime Believed To Be Drugs, Poverty And Homeless Not Broken Justice System; Crime Viewed As Big City Issue; Economy Viewed As Fair To Poor; 75% Support Age Restrictions On Purchase Of AR-15 Rifles, 52% Support Ban; Support For Border Wall Increases By Region And Party
For many decades, the Albuquerque Journal has commissioned polls for general elections in New Mexico. The newspaper retains as its exclusive pollster the polling firm Research & Polling. Founded in 1986 by its President and CEO Brian Sanderoff, Research & Polling Inc. is New Mexico’s largest full-service market research and public opinion research company.
This year’s poll was conducted from September 6 to September 13 and excluded the evening of September 10 due to the presidential debate. The 2024 general election year poll included polling on the top issues including crime, the economy, education, border security and gun control.
During the week of September 16 to September 22 the Albuquerque Journal ran front page articles reporting on the results of the poll.
ISSUES MOST CONCERNING TO VOTERS
The Albuquerque Journal poll asked respondents what is the biggest issue or concern facing New Mexico residents right now? No single issue took precedence by a landslide. A majority of voters mentioned one of six issues as their top concern and those were inflation, crime, (K-12) education, weak economy/jobs/wages, illegal immigration/border security and homelessness. Among other issues most cited were drugs, poverty, abortion, healthcare reform, gun control. Local/state government ethics, mental healt/behavioral health, quality of higher education system and climate change.
The results of the six top issues of concern were:
- INFLATION: 18%
- CRIME: 16%
- QUALITY OF K-12 Education: 9%
- WEAK ECONOMY/JOBS/WAGES: 8%
- ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION/BORDER SECURITY: 8%
- HOMELESSNESS: 7%
“According to the poll, voters in the Albuquerque metro area are the most worried about crime, with 20% of people saying that’s the biggest issue.
Only 14% of Albuquerque metro voters mark inflation as their top concern, much less than other areas of the state that had 18-24% of people most concerned about it.
Ideologically, voters leaning conservative, moderate and liberal largely agreed that inflation and crime are the top issues. The poll results found 17% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans thought that inflation was the biggest concern, while 16% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans said crime was the biggest issue.
A few other concerns made the list, including poverty, abortion, health care reform and gun control, though only 2-3% of voters named any of those issues as their biggest concerns
“Crime is seen as a big problem and opinions do vary, depending on where you live and who you are.”
“Women were more likely than men, 57% to 46%, to see crime as a “very serious” problem, according to the poll. Younger adults, between the ages of 18 and 34, were less likely to see crime as a very serious problem compared with 61% of those ages 50 to 64 years old.
THE ECONOMY: PEOPLE FEEL NO BETTER OFF NOW THAN BEFORE PANDEMIC
The Albuquerque Journal poll asked likely voters two questions on New Mexico’s economy:
- How would you rate the conditions of New Mexico’s economy?
- How would you rate your finances compared to just a few years ago before the pandemic?
According to the Journal Poll, most New Mexicans do not have a favorable view of the state’s economy. They rate the economy as fair or poor. A majority say they are worse off financially or about the same as before the COVID-19 pandemic.
“According to the poll, 40% of likely voters rated economic conditions as fair, while another 38% rated the economy as poor. Another 19% rated economic conditions as good, 1% responded excellent, and 2% either didn’t know or wouldn’t say
GUN CONTROL
The journal poll asked two-gun control questions:
Do you support or oppose legislation in New Mexico raising the age t0 purchase an AR-15 style semiautomatic rifle from 18 to 21 years old?
- 75% support
- 20% oppose
- 4% were undecided
- 1% did not know
Do you support or oppose legislation in New Mexico banning the sale of AR-15 style semiautomatic rifles?
- 52% support
- 43% oppose
- 4% were undecided
- 1% did not know
SUPPORT FOR BORDER WALL INCREASES
The Journal poll found that New Mexicans’ support for a border wall along the U.S., Mexico border has increased since 2018. The poll also found that the state’s voters are also concerned with border security, with 84% of likely voters surveyed saying the border is a somewhat serious or very serious problem.
“Of the likely voters surveyed, 52% support building a border wall and 37% oppose it, with 8% who were undecided or said it depends, and 3% who don’t know or won’t say. This is a dramatic change and is higher since the last time the Journal polled this question in 2018, when 37% of voters supported building a border wall and 56% opposed it.”
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2% percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples
Whenever polls such as this are released, the general voting public and candidates themselves tend to dismiss them saying the poll is not accurate because so few are interviewed. Like it or not, the public still view them with intense interest much like when people slow down as they pass a car wreck. When it comes to the major issues facing New Mexico voters, the Albuquerque Journal poll provides a solid reflection of what is going on in voters’ minds.
Excerpted from Pet Dinelli’s Blog of Sept. 23, 2024.