Did You Know – November 2024 – Election 2024

As of October 22nd, two weeks before Election Day, early voting in New Mexico has hit 194,250 ballots cast. This figure represents about 21% of the vote total for the 2020 election.  This is a rather substantial figure at this time in the election process.

Dems cast 98,306 votes (51%), Reps 69,296 (36%) and Decline to State (DTS) 24,870 (13%).  Compared to statewide party registration figures, at this point, Dems are overrepresented by 8%, Reps are overrepresented by 5% and DTS are underrepresented by 10%.  Conventional wisdom has it that Dems tend to vote early and Reps wait until Election Day.  Looks like this is holding true for the Dems and maybe some Reps are early voters also, this time around.  DTS are not showing up early. The biggest group of early voters is, by far, voters 65 years of age and older.

In Sandoval County, 20,250 people have voted. This total figure represents 27% of the people who voted in the county during the 2020 election, a higher percentage than for the statewide vote (21%).  9,589 Dems (47%), 7,437 Reps (37%) and 3,016 DTS (15%) voted already. Compared to statewide figures, the Dems are lagging, Reps and DTS are about the same.  When looking at party registrations in the county, Dems are overrepresented by 6%, Reps overrepresented by 4% and DTS underrepresented by 9%.  These finding are similar to statewide figures.  Likewise in Sandoval County, voters 65 years of age or older are the largest voting group.

When looking at where these early voters live, obviously Rio Rancho is the big dog on the block, with 14,929 (74%), followed by Corrales, 1,756 (9%), Placitas 1,425 (7%), and Bernalillo 1,218 (6%).  9, 530 (47%) men have voted, 10,711 (53%) women have voted.  58% of Dem voters are women while 55% of Rep voters are men.  Not surprising given the national party breakdown. Also, 55% of DTS voters are men.

Observations

With two weeks to go until Election Day, it is difficult to make projections based on these early data.  It does appear that this will be a large turnout election in the state and even more so within Sandoval County.  This assumption is made with the notion that voting will continue as it has in the past national election.  It is generally thought that Dems do better in large turnout elections, which has been typically true at the national level.

Polling has shown that the Dems at the top of the ticket, President, Senator and Representative are all heading to victory in New Mexico, though that sentiment is not assured in one Congressional district that does not include Sandoval County.  It is hoped that the top of the ticket, in a high turnout election, will pull Dem candidates through to victory up and down the ballot. Hopefully, this holds true for Sandoval County as well.