Did You Know – October 2024 – Election 2024
Did You Know
Things are heating up for the fall 2024 elections! Voter registration data come from New Mexico Secretary or State, Voting and Elections, 2024 Voter Registration Data Webpage. Campaign contribution numbers come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Campaign Finance System Webpage.
As of July 31, 2024 August 30, 2024
Voter Registration by Party in NM
Dems 43.2% 43.0%
Reps 31.3% 31.3%
Lib 1.1% 1.1%
Ind 23.4% 23.5%
Other .9% .9%
Very little change in party registrations statewide.
Voter Registration by Party in Sandoval County
Dems 41.0% 41.0% +179 voters
Reps 33.2% 33.3% +176 voters
Lib 1.2% 1.2%
Ind 23.8% 23.8%
Other .7% .7%
Voter registration information for the state and county as reported above should be good news, in general, for Democratic candidates for national, state and county offices. Very little change in the county from last month. 3 more Dems than Reps registered. Yet, with almost 1 out of every 4 voters being an Independent/Undeclared, nothing can be taken for granted. While we could not find out information on how independents tend to vote in New Mexico or Sandoval County, conventional wisdom has it that they tend to vote more Republican than Democratic. Turnout is, therefore, the name of the game. Dem candidates must work hard at turning out their voters and convincing independents to vote for them, too.
The lifting is a little heavier in Sandoval County for Dems, since the gap between Dem and Rep voter registration is only 8% compared to 12% for the state. So it is going to be TURNOUT, TURNOUT, and TURNOUT!
$ Raised by Candidates
Money isn’t everything, but it sure helps! Without $$$, it’s “better luck next time”! So all you Dems out there need to open up the wallet, pocketbook, checkbook, or credit card and help make our candidates viable. Can’t get their messages out “on the grapevine” without some $$ to ease the way.
Countywide Offices
County Clerk 8/1 9/1
Ann Brady Romero (D) $10K $18.6K
Tanya Watkins (R) $4.6K $5.2K
County Treasurer
Jenny Taylor (D) $4.5K $7.8K
Richard Shanks (R) .5K $.5K
Some increases for the Dem candidates. More is needed! We need to support our two incumbents for the County Clerk and County Treasurer offices.
County Commission 8/1 9/1
Beau Sandoval (D) $9.1K $9.8K
Jon Herr (R) $12.8K $15.6K
Madigan Ray (D) $11.8K $13.3K
Jordon Juarez (R) $15.9K $28.8K
Josh Jones (D) $13.1K $20.6K
Justin Garcia (R) .1K $2.3K
Except in the case of the Dem incumbent, Josh Jones, lots of work needs to be done here.
Dems have a unique and rare opportunity to flip the Sandoval County Commission, finally! Two Reps have been termed-out and the only incumbent running, Josh Jones is a Dem. The Reps on the Commission have been election-denying dinosaurs holding the county back for too long.
The $$$ so far garnered by the Commission candidates is only the beginning. But you can see from the above that the Dem candidates need HELP! The two Dems, Beau Sandoval and Madigan Ray, are at this date behind in fund raising. Each are behind their Rep opponents but given that they are contesting two seats currently held by Reps, they need resources to WIN!
NM Senate Districts
For Senate and House districts we were able to identify voter registration data along with monies raised. This information is for comparison purposes.
#9 (Dems – 45%, Reps – 31%) 8/1 9/1
Cindy Nava (D) $100K+ $100K+
Audrey Trujillo $51.9K $71.3K
#12 (Dems – 37%, Reps – 37%)
Phil Ramirez (D) $19K $58.8K
Jay Block (R) NR $100K+
#40 (Dems – 35%, Reps – 37%)
Amina Everett (D) $9.7K $18.6K
Craig Brant (R) $100K+ $100K+
As of 8/30, 1 Dem and 2 Rep Senate candidates are well ahead in monies raised. Yet, in district #40, there is very little difference in party affiliation figures. This should be a highly competitive district, based on voter registration, especially if the Dem candidate can close the funding gap. There is no difference in party registration in district #12. Let’s give Phil and Amina a fighting chance.
NM House Districts 8/1 9/1
#23 (Dems – 35%, Reps 39%)
Frank Smith (D) $28.1K $40.1K
Alan Martinez (R) $54.4K $61.7K
#44 (Dems – 41%, Reps – 34%)
Cathleen Cates (D) $97.1K $100K+
Ali Ennega (R) NR $73.2K
#50 (Dems -48%, Reps – 28%)
Matthew McQueen (D) $31K $63.2K
Kenneth Brennan (R) $7.8K $14K
#57 (Dems – 36%, Reps – 35%)
Michelle Sandoval (D) $30K $100K+
Catherine Cullen (R) $20K $57K
#60 (Dems – 34%, Reps – 37%)
Luke Jungmann (D) $20.5K $22K
Joshua Hernandez (R) $92.1K $100K+
The four House incumbents (Cates, Martinez, McQueen, & Hernandez), 2 Dems, 2 Reps have raised the most $$$ thus far, except for Michelle Sandoval (way to go, Michelle!). The voter registration numbers favor the inclumbents but not by that much in Districts #23 and #60. District #44, the open seat, is certainly winable. Let’s open our pocketbooks and get behind Michele Sandoval, Luke Jungmann and Frank Smith for the WIN!
Observations
Money raised is one thing, money spent is another. Candidates are spending money on a lot of different campaign materials and activities. But you can’t spend what you don’t have. Dems and sympathetic Independents need to support out candidates and provide them with the resources they need to get their messages out.